Probabilistic and statistical methods of risk assessment of investment projects of a region

Abstract

Objective: the article deals with the research of the peculiarities of the probabilistic and statistical methods of evaluation of investment project risks in the economic space of a region. Methods: comparison, generalization, systemic analysis, theoretical cognition. Results: the main advantage of probabilistic and statistical methods is that fact, that the measurement of risk is carried out using objective measures — standard deviation and coefficient of mutability. However, these methods have certain disadvantages, in particular the necessity of making a large number of assumptions and the difficulty of estimating the probability both as net cash flows, and individual scenarios. Using the proposed approach to risk factor assessment in the evaluation of the effectiveness and feasibility of investment projects in a region, an investor can exercise an informed choice of the best of them. This will increase the degree of validity of the investment decision-making, reduce the probability of deterioration in the financial condition of the potential investor, and will improve the relationship between risk and expected return of investment projects in the economic space of a region. Scientific novelty: the author proposed to apply a method of net present value, while make the calculations of the expected net present value, standard deviation, and shift factor during probabilistic and statistical estimation of the risks of investment project.Practical significance: the conceptual basis of probabilistic and statistical estimation of the risks of investment project in a region are formed.